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Saturday's midday high water stayed below flood stage, but breaking waves up to 15 feet and renewed gusts to 60 mph are expected overnight
Saturday's midday high tide came in well under forecast, with no flooding. But the National Weather Service raised its surf forecast for the coast Saturday afternoon, and a flood watch now covers eastern Massachusetts through late Monday night. The high tide just before midnight and a renewed round of strong wind overnight are the next things to watch.
The high tide at Boston Harbor, the nearest official gauge to Marblehead, peaked at 11.66 feet around 11:42 a.m., according to NOAA Tides & Currents. That was below the 12.5-foot minor flood stage and short of the weather service's forecast of 12.1 to 12.6 feet.
'I'll reserve judgment for later'
Fire Chief Jason Gilliland said late Saturday afternoon that the storm had not matched its billing so far, but he wasn't ready to call it.
"Right now I haven't seen much of anything," Gilliland said in an interview at 5:34 p.m. "I'll reserve judgment for later."
He remembered forecasts of 17-foot waves beginning Friday. The weather service's surf advisory Thursday had called for breaking waves of up to 17 feet. He also remembered the crowds at the town's grocery stores ahead of the storm.
"You look at Crosby, you look at Market Basket, you think there's a snowstorm coming," he said. "Here we are Saturday. We had some wind, but not crazy winds."
Gilliland said the harbormaster told him that if conditions turn bad, it will be tonight, around the midnight high tide. He expected the effects to show up around 9 or 10 p.m. and last until about 5 a.m. Sunday.
The Ocean Avenue causeway is the chief's main concern. Gilliland said he planned to check it again around 6:30 p.m. Saturday. As one of the town's two emergency management directors, the decision to close it rests largely with him. If waves throw debris onto the road, he said, public works crews would have to come out and scrape the causeway clear.
As of late afternoon, the Fire Department had not needed to post firefighters at the Eastern Yacht Club on Marblehead Neck, a decision Gilliland said would be his to make.
He expects more trouble from trees, which still carry most of their leaves. "A lot of bad trees out there," he said.
"But if we do get a tree down, it is what it is," he said. "I mean, we'll handle it."
Light department on call
"So far, so good," Jonathan Blair, general manager of the Marblehead Municipal Light Department, said in a text message Saturday. "We're definitely not out of the woods yet, but we are stocked and staffed for whatever comes up."
Blair said the town coordinated Thursday afternoon to line up its storm response across the Police, Fire, Public Works, School and Tree departments. Gilliland said he did not believe the light department had brought crews in on standby Saturday, but that its crews were on call.
What happened versus the forecast
The storm surge, the extra water pushed ashore by the storm, ran about 1.45 feet at the midday tide. The weather service had forecast 2 to 2.5 feet, and that larger surge has not materialized in Boston Harbor.
The flooding forecasters worried about most has shown up to the south instead. The weather service had identified the area south of Boston as the greatest concern, and about 2 feet of surge pushed Nantucket into minor flood stage overnight.
The wind has followed a similar pattern. Peak gusts of 45 to 60 mph were observed along the coast Saturday morning, with localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph on Block Island and Cape Cod.
Marblehead has already seen damage. A tree fell at Green Street cemetery, splitting near the ground.
What is still coming
The next high tide is expected around 11:54 p.m. Saturday. If the surge holds at the roughly 1.5 feet observed at midday, the tide would reach about 11.7 to 11.8 feet at Boston Harbor, under the minor flood stage. If the larger surge in the weather service's guidance arrives, the tide would come closer to or cross that line.
Sunday's midday tide also bears watching. NOAA's tide predictions put it at 10.62 feet before any storm surge, higher than Saturday's 10.21 feet. That means it would take about 1.9 feet of surge to reach flood stage Sunday.
The coastal flood warning remains in effect until 8 p.m. Sunday. In its 3:42 p.m. forecast discussion, the weather service said it is considering extending the warning into Monday morning's high tide. It had not done so as of Saturday evening.
The surf forecast went up Saturday afternoon. The high surf advisory, updated at 2:08 p.m., now calls for breaking waves of 6 to 15 feet, up from 6 to 13 feet, through 8 p.m. Sunday.
Offshore, the weather service extended its storm warning for Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay until 10 a.m. Sunday. It had been set to end at 8 p.m. Saturday. The warning calls for northeast winds of 25 to 35 knots, gusts to 50 knots and seas of 10 to 14 feet, and it advises mariners to stay in port.
The wind is expected to pick up again tonight. Forecasters warned of a renewed risk of gusts of 45 to 60 mph as a band of strong winds just above the surface strengthens. The high wind warning remains in effect until 8 a.m. Sunday. Gusts should ease to 30 to 45 mph on Sunday and drop below 30 mph by Monday night.
Rain is its own concern. The flood watch, issued at 12:18 p.m. Saturday, runs through 2 a.m. Tuesday. Forecasters expect 2 to 4 inches of rain, with localized totals of 5 to 7 inches possible and the heaviest rain from Saturday afternoon through Monday. They warn that urban streets and small streams could flood.
Town status
As of 6:18 p.m. Saturday, the town had not closed the Ocean Avenue causeway or any other roads, and the light department had not posted any outage notices.
The town's standing warning remains in place. The causeway, the only road in and out of Marblehead Neck, may close with little notice. Residents should also watch Front Street, Beacon Street and the Grace Oliver's area for flooding.
What comes next
The high wind warning ends at 8 a.m. Sunday, and the marine storm warning ends at 10 a.m. The coastal flood warning and high surf advisory run until 8 p.m. Sunday, and the flood warning could be extended into Monday morning. The flood watch continues through late Monday night. Forecasters expect drier, warmer weather starting Tuesday.
When the causeway floods or the power goes out, you need news about Marblehead, not all of Massachusetts. The Marblehead Independent is covering this storm street by street, and it's free to read because members pay for it. If this story helped you get ready, become a member today and help keep independent local reporting going through this storm and the next one. Click here to become an Independent member.
